Search results for: unemployment

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Data dependence, broadly defined – Implications of last week’s Fed meeting

Last week’s FOMC meeting was the third largest dovish surprise in the QE era, only bested by the original QE1 announcement and the September 2013 “no taper” decision. We continue to expect the FOMC to hike rates in September, and the pace of rate hikes thereafter should be faster than markets are currently pricing.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

Reflections on Greece and China

Greece won’t repay its debt without substantial forgiveness. Creditors will realize that repayment of some portion of the debt is better than nothing.

Tagged with: Global Economy

What if low interest rates are not a function of low economic growth?

Low interest rates have provided a significant tailwind for bonds and equities over the last 30 years. Globalization of labor markets, rather than slow growth, could be the main driver for today’s low interest rates.

Tagged with: Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Global Investing, Interest Rates

Waiting on wages

The latest wage data is mixed, with some measures pointing higher while others appear quite sluggish. Wages in the goods producing industries have been hit particularly hard due to the energy and export/dollar impact, although service industries appear insulated. 
It seems likely that the Fed will await more convincing evidence that global factors have run their course and allow the normal relationship between falling unemployment rates and tighter labor markets to strengthen.

Tagged with: Economic Policy, U.S. Economy

A creature is stirring

Last week’s news suggests that the center of the FOMC continues to see interest rate hikes in the middle of next year as most appropriate. December 17 looks like a natural time to begin signaling the possibility of rate hikes to financial markets—an eventuality for which bond investors do not look prepared.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

European equities – Yesterday’s bears become today’s bulls

We expect to see European earnings and economic growth expectations firming during the year. Even with the strong move in markets so far this year, European equity valuations are not unattractive in our view.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Global Investing, Global Perspectives

We remain dollar bulls given the likelihood of superior U.S. economic performance

We believe the weakness in the U.S. dollar is likely to remain temporary and that we can use the current correction to rebuild our dollar risk position. We expect the U.S. economy to outperform because it has fewer structural rigidities and should enjoy greater long-term productivity gains than comparable economies.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Monetary Policy, U.S. Economy

2015 – The year of living carefully?

We expect high yield and emerging markets debt to deliver better returns in either a slow growth or inflationary recovery scenario. Investors should brace for higher levels of price volatility as monetary policy continues to move in different directions around the globe.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Global Perspectives, Investing

QE worked, but not as advertised

While QE proved very effective in reinforcing the Fed’s communication about short-term interest rates, there could be simpler ways to achieve the same outcome. The U.S. experience with QE suggests it would be effective in Europe.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

The U.S. labor market — Show me the money

It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy
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About Us

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is a leading global asset management group that provides a broad range of actively managed investment strategies and solutions for individual, institutional and corporate clients around the world. With more than 2,000 people, including over 450 investment professionals based in North America, Europe and Asia, we manage $503 billion†† of assets across developed and emerging market equities, fixed income, asset allocation solutions and alternatives.

††In U.S. dollars as of June 30, 2015. Source: Ameriprise Q2 Earnings Release. Includes all assets managed by entities in the Columbia and Threadneedle groups of companies. Contact us for more current data.