Search results for: inflation

  1.  
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. ...
  6. 6

Inflation — The usual suspects

Four factors figure empirically into how and why inflation moves: (1) commodity prices, (2) spare capacity, (3) changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary policy. These same factors argue for a gradual recovery in U.S. inflation in the year ahead, which could be a headwind for high-quality fixed-income returns.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

ECB asset purchases — Bazooka or damp squib?

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

Slack and inflation

Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

| Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Release the doves

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

Deflation dilemma

The factors keeping inflation low remain U.S. dollar strength and sluggish global trade, together with the deflationary pulse from weak energy and commodity prices. While there is little danger of this developing into true deflation, the strong dollar effect will continue to depress inflation for much longer and this has a stronger influence on core inflation.

| Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

The European Central Bank is embarking on quantitative easing at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. A more constructive economic outlook could have important implications for European markets.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Markets

U.S. rates — Waiting for the sound

Latest data showing faster growth and shrinking gaps. Normalizing economy creates asymmetry in monetary policy outlook.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Data dependence, broadly defined – Implications of last week’s Fed meeting

Last week’s FOMC meeting was the third largest dovish surprise in the QE era, only bested by the original QE1 announcement and the September 2013 “no taper” decision. We continue to expect the FOMC to hike rates in September, and the pace of rate hikes thereafter should be faster than markets are currently pricing.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

U.S. Rates — The Draghi Floor

ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

2015 – The year of living carefully?

We expect high yield and emerging markets debt to deliver better returns in either a slow growth or inflationary recovery scenario. Investors should brace for higher levels of price volatility as monetary policy continues to move in different directions around the globe.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Global Perspectives, Investing
  1.  
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. ...
  6. 6

About Us

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is a leading global asset management group that provides a broad range of actively managed investment strategies and solutions for individual, institutional and corporate clients around the world. With more than 2,000 people, including over 450 investment professionals based in North America, Europe and Asia, we manage $506 billion†† of assets across developed and emerging market equities, fixed income, asset allocation solutions and alternatives.

††In U.S. dollars as of December 31, 2014. Source: Ameriprise Q4 Earnings Release. Includes all assets managed by entities in the Columbia and Threadneedle groups of companies. Contact us for more current data.